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Australia keeps rates at 3% at 49-year low  

Posted by M. Rashid

SYDNEY: Australia's central bank left interest rates unchanged at a 49-year low of 3.0 percent for the fourth successive month on Tuesday and indicated further cuts were unlikely.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) removed earlier references to "further easing" in an upbeat assessment of the domestic economy, which has weathered the downturn with the best performance of any advanced country."Economic conditions in Australia have been stronger than expected a few months ago, with both consumer spending and exports notable for their resilience," bank governor Glenn Stevens said."Measures of confidence have recovered a good deal of ground. This suggests that the risk of a severe contraction in the Australian economy has abated."Stevens has indicated the next rates move will be upwards in Australia, which is the only major Western nation to avoid a recession, defined by consecutive quarters of negative growth.The central bank has slashed the cash rate from 7.25 percent last September in an aggressive round of easing aimed at helping Australia fight off the worst global slump since the Great Depression."The most likely outcome in the near term is a period of sluggish output, with consumer spending likely to slow somewhat and investment remaining weak," Stevens said."Stronger dwelling activity and public spending will start to provide more support to overall demand soon, and growth is likely to firm into 2010."Analysts tipped a rate rise next year, when unemployment is also predicted to increase, with official forecasts saying joblessness of 5.8 percent will hit 8.5 percent by mid-2011."The bottom line is the Reserve Bank is no longer talking about interest rate cuts," Commsec analyst Craig James told Sky News. "It's now in a more neutral stance, suggesting the next move could be up or could be down."Given he's (Stevens) now removed the easing bias, the next move will almost certainly be up. The question is in terms of the timing." LINK

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